From Ambition to Disappointment

When first announced, the Green Line’s budget was estimated at $2–3 billion. Today, that figure has ballooned to over $6 billion, even with a drastically reduced scope. This reduction has seen six stations cut from Phase 1, raising questions about the project’s viability. In response, the Province of Alberta pulled its $1.53 billion in allocated funding, citing the compromised scope and unmet preferences for underground sections.

The Procurement Standoff

In April 2023, Bow Transit Connectors, a joint venture between Flatiron and Barnard, was awarded the contract under a Progressive Design-Build (PDB) model. This approach allowed for a 16-month design development phase to finalize a target price. By mid-2024, however, negotiations stalled as both parties failed to agree on costs, with the rumored gap exceeding $2 billion. This breakdown left the project in limbo, with both the City and contractors bearing significant losses.

Why Are Costs Rising?

The Green Line’s escalating costs mirror global trends in infrastructure. Since the pandemic, annual cost increases of 10–15% have become commonplace, driven by supply chain disruptions, inflation, labor shortages, collective bargaining agreements and rising union wages. Delays further compound these issues, turning ambitious budgets into outdated estimates. The Green Line’s prolonged stasis is a textbook case of how indecision and procrastination can inflate costs beyond control.

The Fallout of Delays

The PDB model’s “off-ramp” mechanism, which allows parties to back out if costs cannot be agreed upon, proved to be a critical vulnerability. Once the project stalled, the second-choice bidders had moved on, forcing Calgary back to square one. The cancellation disrupted contractor plans, burned resources, and led to a public spat between city and provincial leaders. Despite initial flurries of media attention in August 2024, updates have since dried up, leaving residents and stakeholders in the dark.

A City Divided

At the heart of the issue lies disagreement over the rail’s design. While the city initially favored underground construction through downtown to appease office tower owners, the Province balked at the added expense. The City of Calgary now plans to self-perform certain elements of the project and directly procure others, hoping to cut costs. AECOM is exploring at-grade or above-grade designs to fit the reduced budget, but no timeline for completion has been provided.

What’s Next for Calgary?

On December 13, the province of Alberta presented a new alignment of the Green Line which will create $1 billion in savings and now put the ball firmly in the City of Calgary’s court in hope that construction can begin in early 2025. However, there are lots of questions still to be answered following what was a vague presentation.

For now, Calgarians are left waiting without clear answers. The Green Line saga serves as a cautionary tale of what happens when strategic infrastructure lacks decisive leadership and stakeholder alignment. Delays in this mega project have shaken confidence in Calgary’s infrastructure sector and stalled related initiatives.

As of Jun 26th, the Green Line LRT has officially “broken ground” but nobody knows who will construct the long overdue project.

Lessons Learned

  1. Procrastination Costs More Than TimeThe best time to plant a tree was yesterday. The lack of decisiveness is building strategic infrastructure has a very clear cost in this case, plus a host of missed opportunities. Procrastination is a costly game that infrastructure leaders fail to understand, and the Green Line is a painful reminder that infrastructure requires urgency and commitment. 
  2. Stakeholder Alignment Is Non-Negotiable
    Alignment between key stakeholders is critical for any major projects, and disagreements between the city and province over design and scope in this case exposed underlying tensions. The stress of additional costs simply opened a wound that had not been resolved between key stakeholders.
  3. Politics Should Stay Out of Social MediaCivil servants ought to do better than public spats on social media. Focus on serving your community and not scoring political points in public.

 

A Hopeful Outlook

Despite the setbacks, there is still hope for progress. Calgarians deserve the transformative infrastructure they were promised, and leaders must now work together to make it happen. Fingers crossed for updates that bring clarity and concrete steps toward breaking ground on this vital project.